A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
